水产养殖容量评估方法与应用

    Assessment methods and applications of aquaculture carrying capacity

    • 摘要:
      目的 为应对全球水产养殖扩张带来的环境压力,科学评估养殖容量已成为协调产业发展与生态保护、实现可持续发展的核心议题。
      分析 本文系统梳理了养殖容量的概念体系,基于物理、生产、生态和社会四维分类框架,阐释其理论内涵与相互关联;以三个递进层次归纳了养殖容量评估方法(包括传统经验法、现场实验法、特定生长率法、能量收支法及生态系统动力学法等)的原理、适用场景与局限性,揭示从单一因素评估向多因素综合模型演进的发展趋势,以及DEPOMOD和Ecopath等模型的应用;探讨了网箱养殖、池塘养殖、底播养殖等不同模式下养殖容量的评估特点与方法适配性。
      结论 针对当前评估实践面临的关键挑战,提出应建立多模型耦合评估框架,拓展深远海评估潜力以及平衡生态−经济−社会体系,以期为水产养殖业的可持续规划与管理提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract:
      Objectives In response to the environmental pressures resulting from the global expansion of aquaculture, the scientific assessment of carrying capacity has become a core issue for coordinating industrial development with ecological protection and achieving sustainable development.
      Analysis This paper systematically reviews the conceptual framework of carrying capacity, and elucidates its theoretical connotations and interrelationships based on a four-dimensional classification framework encompassing physical, production, ecological, and social dimensions. It summarizes the principles, applicable scenarios, and limitations of carrying capacity assessment methods at three progressive levels—including traditional empirical approaches, field experiments, specific growth rate methods, energy budget methods, and ecosystem dynamics models—revealing the evolutionary trend from single-factor assessment toward comprehensive multi-factor modeling, as well as the application of models such as DEPOMOD and Ecopath. Moreover, it explores the carrying capacity assessment characteristics and methodological suitability for different farming modes, including cage farming, pond farming, and bottom-sowing farming.
      Conclusion Addressing the key challenges facing current assessment practices and proposes that a multi-model coupled assessment framework should be established, the assessment potential in deep and offshore waters should be expanded, and the ecological-economic-social system should be balanced, so as to provide a scientific basis for the sustainable planning and management of the aquaculture industry.

       

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